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One Billion and Counting...

In 1993 Zahur Klemath Zapata developed the first software to read digital books. Digital Book v.1 and the first digital book is published ON MURDER CONSIDERED AS ONE OF THE FINE ARTS, by Thomas De Quincey

The latest report out by Forrester Research predicts that ebook sales will reach$966 million in 2010 and that by 2011, the amount will be $1 billion. In 2009, ebook sales were $169.5 million, a small portion of the $35Billion publishing industry. Forrester reports that as people get the hang of reading ebooks, they shift their book-buying from hardcover or paperback to ebooks.

James McQuivey of Forrester states that "the average eBook reader already consumes 41% of books in digital form." Those who've taken the plunge and gotten a Kindle or other ereader have an even higher percentage: 2 out of 3 books they read are ebooks. Amazon illustrated this in their announcement that in its spring quarter it sold 143 for every 100 hardcover books. Forrester found that only 7% of online adults who read books read ebooks, highlighting that there is room for growth.

The question for publishing is whether ebook sales will simply cannibalize current hardcover and paperback sales, or whether there might be a windfall of converting formats.  If people who have the paperback edition of "Twilight" buy it again as an ebook, publishing will profit. But if they skip it, and instead choose to buy Stephenie Meyer's next novel as an ebook instead of getting the hardcover, the bottom line shrinks and that billion looks less promising...

eBook Evolution Continues

NuroMedia released the first handheld ebook reader, the Rocket, which allowed ebooks to be downloaded from a PC via a serial cable.

According to the  technology gurus at GigaOm, the line between what we call a "book" and something that's just a really long chunk of published text—what you might call the "not quite a book" category—continues to blur in the electronic publishing world.

Borders has released, right on the heels of the Kindles Singles program, a service that allows bloggers or anyone else with an idea to publish what is effectively an e-book and get it distributed through all the major e-book platforms. They are doing this in partnership with Bookbrewer, a subsidiary of Boulder, Colo.-based startup FeedBrewer, Inc., which creates multi-platform publishing solutions for mobile devices. 

The service allows writers to upload their content, then publish an e-book in the open ePub format that can be downloaded for the iPad, the Kindle, the Kobo, or any other e-reader. The service has two tiers. One costs $89.99 and gives authors an ISBN, the universal book-tracking number used in the publishing industry. The advanced, $199.99 package also gives authors a master ePub file they can share or upload wherever they wish. Aaah, the changing landscape of publishing continues to morph...

Glimmer of Hope for Indies

March retail sales at bookstores were up by 1.6 percent, compared with March 2009, according to preliminary figures recently released by the Bureau of the Census - American Booksellers Association
 

Oren Teicher, chief executive of the American Booksellers Association (ABA), which represents independent stores, reported some good news the other day - membership is up from last years 1,401 to 1,410! But sadly, that is still it low from nearly 3,000 at the height of Independent Book Store ownership.
 

Independent stores have been struggling with the onslaught of change in the industry:

1. The spread of superstore chains, like Barnes & Nobles and Borders.
2. The emergence of Amazon.com and other online retailers.
3. The rise of the e-book platform, with many versions entering - Kindle, Nook, iPad etc. e-books now account for nearly 8% of sales for some major publishers.

Teicher credits last year’s turnaround mostly to the smarts of the independent community and a willingness to experiment, such as the literary day camp at BookPeople in Austin, Texas, or the clothing store in the Northshire Bookstore in Vermont. ABA president Michael Tucker, co-owner of Books Inc. in San Francisco, says the economy may have helped some stores, making it less costly to find retail space in downtown locations.

As the industry continues to face upheaval, fingers crossed that the Indies keep marching on.

Publishing A'mazoning

Kindle Currently has 90% of ebook Market - TBI Research

Amazon is launching a new "70% royalty option" for the Kindle. Under this option, Amazon will pay authors and publishers a royalty of 70% of the list price of Kindle books, which is a far higher per-copy royalty than most authors receive on physical book sales (including the standard Kindle book royalties).

This new plan will encourage more authors to "go direct" to Amazon (or at least force their publishers to sell ebooks at a substantial discount). This, in turn, will increase the pressure on traditional publishers to cut prices on wholesale Kindle books. And that, in turn, will transform the Kindle business from a big money-loser into a very profitable business for Amazon.

The traditional publishing industry feels that cuts in ebook prices will wipe out what little margin the publishers have left, thus preventing publishers from paying authors big advances and, thus result in fewer good books being published. But, as ebook prices drop, unit velocity will increase, leading to higher revenues. So this is where the book industry is headed, whether traditional publishers want it to or not. Amazon's new plan should help shorten the time it takes to get there. The plan should also solidify Amazon's already tremendous dominance of the ebook business.

Changing Publishing Paradigms

U.S. publishers had net sales of $24.3 billion in 2008, down from $25.0 billion in 2007, representing a 2.8% decrease. Association of American Publishers (AAP)

I tend to keep my “other” work life separate from my writing life, but increasingly, I’ve find the two coming together. I live and work in Silicon Valley, surrounded by technology. During the day I look at patents, inventions and technologies covering a huge array of industries – Increasingly I’m watching how technological innovation is bumping up against traditional publishing.

Ten years ago, there was no Google, no iPod, Kindle, Fastpencil or Smashwords -- Amazon had only been in business for 5 years. A lot has happened in the last decade that is compelling the publishing industry to take a look at traditional ways of doing business in an increasingly digital age.

Technology today, more than ever, has a disruptive impact on publishing. The Internet, print-on-demand and ebooks are some drivers for change. They impact multiple points of the publishing value chain—from the way books are published (authors can go direct to the reader), distributed (electronic marketplaces), sold (e-tailers) and read (ebooks). This is an interesting trend where technology is enabling increased number of books, but fewer bookstores – Independent Booksellers are in trouble, as are the big guys (Borders closing UK stores)

There have been massive lay-offs at major publishing houses, including my own, Simon & Schuster. S&S recently reduced its sales force, and I was sad to see our field rep in California, to Independent Booksellers, let go. Even book reviewers are facing extinction, such as Kirkus, which nearly hit the chopping block. But this is the world we live in – change is needed for survival. Many have prophesized the end of the printed book, but I don’t know – I own a kindle, but I still love to pick up a paper book, crack it open and inhale the fresh paper smell. Let’s see what the future brings…

Un-Seuss-Tainable

The average American uses seven trees a year in paper, wood, and other products made from trees --this amounts to about 2,000,000,000 trees per year

Photo: gravlax/Flickr

Sad to say, when I open a book and turn the page, I never really think about the page itself – just the words printed on it. In the back of my mind, I know where the paper came from -- wood pulp, which is primarily from trees, which grow in forests. So when I saw a report by the World Wildlife Fund, I was horrified, as would be the Lorax.

The report reveals that a significant amount of deforestation in Asia's tropical forests is caused by the production of children’s books. Nearly a third of all of these books contains paper that was illegally logged in China and Indonesia. Paper analysis indicated that much of the pulp came from cleared areas of tropical forest that was home to endangered species like tigers, elephants and rhinoceros. To compound the problem, it is a known fact that the Asian paper industry seriously violates human rights contributes to greenhouse gas emissions.

In Indonesia, some of the companies involved include Gold East Paper, Yalong Paper Products and Asia Pulp and Paper. They are leveling tropical rain forests at a rate that could make them disappear within 10 years. Another recent investigation by Greenpeace revealed that 88% of logging in Indonesia is illegal in some way.

Although only German children's books were tested, the investigation should raise red flags about book production worldwide, as paper is increasingly sourced from China. In response to the investigation, WWF Germany is calling on publishing houses to use paper certified as coming from sustainable sources or from recycled paper, and to give priority to paper bleached without the use of chlorine products. This call should go out to all publishing houses internationally. This may be another reason to seriously look at eBooks -- Kindles, Nooks and others could reduce the demand for paper -- illegal and otherwise.

One of the tested books had an environmental theme, and contained the prophetic words: "We are writing this in the year 2805. The human race has left the planet earth … nothing grows here anymore …"

Next time you open and book and turn the page, think about where that paper came from.

Nook n’ Kindle

The first eBook readers, Rocket eBook and Softbook, were launched in 1998

Sounds like a picture book about kittens! But no, it is the latest salvo into the eBook wars!

Competition has heated up with Barnes and Nobles Nookish entry! (The business side of me wonders if they whether the folks cooked up the name internally or hired a naming firm). More the better I say; the publishing industry is changing by starts, leaps, fits and bounds and eBooks are not only an environmentally friendly option (less dead trees), but they allow a new channel for book delivery (the author in me likes that).

My husband got me a Kindle, from Amazon, for my last birthday – I was sucked in by its aesthetics, ease of use and the fact that I could download a book in less than sixty seconds… like getting your reading fix instantaneously. (I will say that holding a real, dead tree utilized book is psychologically comforting, reminiscent of childhood and good reads.) The new Nook has similar features to the Kindle with a couple of additions – it has a color LCD mini touch screen (Kindle is black and white) and a unique feature called LendMe which allows the purchaser of a BN eBook to share that file with someone else. There’s no limit on how many times an eBook can be lent--only that you can lend an eBook to one person at a time, and just for up to 14 days. It's priced to match Kindle at $259, but unfortunately will not ship until November 30, cutting it close to the holidays.